El Salvador TPS Expires Today, Putting California’s Workforce at Risk
September 9, 2026
California’s job sites, kitchens, care homes and logistics networks could feel the effects first.
Since 2025, the Bay Area Council Economic Institute has been examining what intensified immigration enforcement means for California’s economy. Our statewide study of mass deportation quantified the potential losses to California’s workforce, industries and economic output. A subsequent Bay Area study brought those risks into regional focus, tracing the consequences for local businesses, tax revenues and household incomes.
This brief focuses on an immediate shift: the expiration of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for El Salvador, first granted after devastating earthquakes struck the country in 2001. When TPS expires September 9, 2026, beneficiaries without another legal basis to work will lose their authorization. We estimate that roughly 45,000 Salvadoran TPS holders live in California, including nearly 8,000 in the nine-county Bay Area.
Because the American Community Survey does not directly identify immigration status, these figures are modeled estimates rather than administrative counts.
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45,205
estimated Salvadoran TPS holders
in California
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$1.36B
in annual wages
across nearly 35,000 California workers
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~8,000
in the nine-county Bay Area
78% of whom are employed
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California carries a disproportionate share of the exposure
California is home to an estimated 26% of Salvadoran TPS holders nationwide, more than Texas and Maryland combined. The state’s estimated population of 45,205 is nearly twice that of Texas, the next-largest state.
Nationally, an estimated 173,000 Salvadorans fit the analysis’s TPS proxy. Approximately 142,400 are employed, earning a combined $5.77 billion annually. California alone accounts for 34,856 of these workers and $1.36 billion in annual wages.
Figure 1. Estimated Salvadoran TPS Holders by State, 2024
Nearly 8,000 Salvadoran TPS holders live in the Bay Area
The nine-county Bay Area is home to at least 7,912 Salvadoran TPS holders, 17% of California’s estimated total. Of these, 6,179, or 78%, are employed, generating more than $385 million in annual earnings across the regional economy.
These figures represent a minimum estimate. Seven Bay Area counties can be identified in the public-use microdata, while Marin and Sonoma cannot be separated from surrounding geographies. The region’s full exposure is therefore likely somewhat larger.
Figure 2. Estimated Salvadoran TPS Holders by County in California, 2024
The effects would reach several major California industries
San Mateo, Los Angeles and San Bernardino counties illustrate three distinct channels of potential business disruption.
In San Mateo County, health care and education employ an estimated 505 and 388 workers, respectively. Together, these industries account for about 40% of the county’s employed Salvadoran TPS population.
In Los Angeles County, approximately 4,600 Salvadoran TPS holders work in construction. Another 2,300 work in administrative, support and waste-management services, including occupations such as housekeeping, janitorial work and landscaping.
In San Bernardino County, approximately 364 work in transportation and warehousing and 344 work in manufacturing. Together, they comprise about 40% of the county’s employed Salvadoran TPS population, connecting the issue directly to the Inland Empire’s logistics economy.
Why employers should treat TPS continuity as a business issue
With an average age of 51, this is an experienced workforce that has built decades of knowledge since El Salvador first received TPS in 2001. It is not a readily replaceable, entry-level labor pool.
The loss of work authorization could increase vacancies, overtime, recruitment and training costs while disrupting construction schedules, delivery networks, manufacturing, health care, hospitality and other local services. Lost earnings would also reduce household spending and demand for neighborhood businesses.
Employers should assess how many employees and contractors could be affected, which positions would be difficult to replace and how much payroll exposure is at stake. For California businesses, TPS continuity is not only an immigration issue, it is a workforce and economic issue.
About the estimates: This analysis uses 2024 American Community Survey microdata obtained through IPUMS USA. Because the ACS does not directly identify TPS or lawful permanent residence, the conservative proxy includes Salvador-born noncitizens who arrived by 2000 and were classified as “Non-LPR” through a residual method using citizenship, arrival, employment, benefit, insurance and related indicators.
Results are modeled survey estimates, not administrative TPS counts. County results are limited to geographies identifiable in public-use microdata. Bay Area figures are minimum estimates because Marin and Sonoma counties are not separately identifiable. Wage exposure represents positive annual wage income among employed people in the model; it is not a forecast that every job or dollar would disappear.