Recent Publications

This report presents estimates of the economic and fiscal impacts of two large-scale development proposals in Solano County: the Suisun Expansion Plan, which includes the Solano Foundry, and the Solano Shipyard. Together, these investments in the economies of Solano County and the State of California would be unprecedented in recent history and would support hundreds of thousands of new jobs across the state. Importantly, both proposals target job creation in manufacturing – a key sector for middle-wage jobs – which would directly address stagnation in this sector. California has not produced any net new jobs in manufacturing since 2010, even as other states have attracted significant amounts of manufacturing investment and employment. Critical to unlocking these new manufacturing jobs are the new homes that are part of the Suisun Expansion Plan, which will ease home price pressure for California families and provide new housing options to Solano County residents and workers.

One of the key developments impacting the world economy in recent years is the reconfiguration of global supply chains. This shift began as an outgrowth of geopolitical tensions between the United States and China but has expanded as the second Trump administration has increased tariffs on a broad range of U.S. trading partners. Pandemic restrictions, particularly in China, also induced many companies to diversify their sourcing.
Changing calculations of risk and competitiveness are influencing corporate decisions, as businesses are placing growing importance not only on cost but on rising trade barriers, security, and supply chain diversification. A key question as U.S. and other businesses make long-term trade and investment decisions is what these new patterns will look like.

The Sonoma County Economic Outlook Report, a collaboration between the Bay Area Economic Institute and the Sonoma County Economic Development Collaborative, provides a quarterly snapshot of how the county’s economy is performing, including key strengths and challenges. The report examines employment, income, migration, industry trends, and economic output to assess current and future economic conditions.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a defining technology of the 21st Century. Like the digital revolution on which it builds, AI will over time impact every industry, the competitiveness of both large and small companies, the provision of government services, and the personal lives of billions of people across the planet through health and other outcomes. How it is developed, deployed and governed is a matter of growing consequence for large and small businesses, private individuals, and their governments.

Gilead’s longstanding partnership with Foster City has been a key factor in its regional impact. Through an amended Master Plan Expansion agreement, the company is transforming its 73-acre campus with new office buildings, research laboratories, and modern amenities including a wellness center, cafeteria, meeting spaces, and landscaped outdoor areas. These investments have led to a growing workforce and construction investments at its headquarters, further strengthening the county’s innovation economy.

Valley Children’s Healthcare is an economic magnet in the Central Valley, as it attracts physicians, employees, and patients from across a very broad region and beyond. While the high-quality care that Valley Children’s provides to the community and its associated health benefits are generally the focus of impact studies, this analysis focuses on the economic impacts – the jobs and overall economic multipliers – that Valley Children’s produces in the Central Valley.

A day or longer without our nonprofits would be devastating. Nonprofits fill the gaps that governmental agencies cannot address. The agility of nonprofits to serve the greater good of the public is an essential and foundational path to a healthier community. Without these resources, without their expertise, we would be witness to a swift reduction in all areas of social justice, equality, economic mobility and see a massive reduction in our ability to enable those with less.

Large-scale federal enforcement actions – including proposed mass deportation policies – could trigger widespread labor disruptions with ripple effects felt across the state and nationwide. Immigrants make up more than half the population in key regions – including agricultural centers across the Central Valley and densely populated coastal urban centers like the Bay Area and Los Angeles. These regions are critical drivers of California’s economy and understanding the potential impact of deportation on local, state, and national economies has never been more critical.

While this report underscores that it is possible for Oakland to dig itself out of its budget and crime crisis, as many other cities have done before, Oakland cannot change its economic downcycle or public safety perceptions and outcomes without prioritization of public safety across city leadership, community stakeholders, and industry partners. The city and its elected and appointed leadership will need to make difficult and bold choices today to preserve and protect Oakland tomorrow. Oakland’s future – its economic vitality, financial sustainability, and public confidence – will be defined by whether leaders protect the status quo, which will prolong Oakland’s cycles of budget stress and safety challenges, or embrace a new approach that places public safety at the center of all budget and policy decisions.

Silicon Valley and the Bay Area have long been
identified with technological innovation, the creation
of new industries, and the disruption of old ones. In
recent years, digitalization has served as the unifying
thread, as both large corporations and startups
from across the United States and around the world
have migrated to the region to be part of the digital
revolution and contribute to its advancement. This
movement isn’t limited to one industry or sector but
has spanned a broad range of disciplines as companies
and governments consider the impact of digital
technologies on their competitiveness. The region is
also identified with entrepreneurship and the creation
or application of technology by emerging companies
that disrupt existing industries or create new ones.
This applies to space. In the popular mind, the
Bay Area—which includes Silicon Valley—is identified
with industries such as computer hardware, software,
semiconductors, or social media, while the space
industry is primarily identified with Southern California,
Florida, or Texas. The Bay Area, however, has a
deep history in the space sector and is playing a
revolutionary role there as well. This report assesses
the space industry in the region—its roots and
development, its current focus, and its contributions to
US competitiveness and the national space mission.

Due to extended shutdowns from the COVID-19 pandemic, work-from-home policies implemented by Bay Area employers, and a reduction in travel, the Bay Area’s downtown cores have experienced a hollowing out of economic activity. Since 2020, the pandemic has changed how businesses choose their locations, how households choose where to live, how people choose to work, and how employees choose to commute.

The UK today stands as Europe’s premier center for technology innovation, venture investment, and startup activity, and while other European centers are growing, the UK retains the prime position. This report examines the institutional and scientific roots of its competitiveness, its vibrant startup economy, and the opportunities they present for Bay Area and other US investors and economic partners.