The Economic Impact of Immigration Enforcement in the Bay Area

As federal immigration enforcement activities have ramped up in cities across the U.S. over the last year – in places like Los Angeles, Chicago, and Minneapolis – much of the conversation around these actions has focused on the moral issues that accompany the detention and deportation of long-standing U.S. residents. While the moral consequences have been front and center, examining the economic effects is critical to understanding the full scope of these actions. Data are critical for effective immigration policy conversations.

These impacts are particularly relevant in regions where immigrants play an outsized role in the economy, yet no studies have systematically examined how immigration enforcement is affecting one of the world’s largest regional economies – the San Francisco Bay Area. This study addresses that gap. The region is home over 2.6 million immigrants, over 477,000 of whom we estimate are undocumented – almost one in five immigrants – with roughly 350,000 participating in the workforce. Many are deeply rooted in the region: half have lived in the Bay Area for more than a decade and nearly one-third for more than 20 years. This long-term integration is reflected in regional demographic trends: immigrants have helped sustain population stability amid declining birth rates and an aging population.

The Bay Area stands to lose up to $67 billion in regional GDP, $8.4 billion in annual tax revenue, and critical portions of its workforce in construction, hospitality, caregiving, and services if undocumented immigrants are removed from the regional economy. This report, therefore, examines how intensified federal immigration enforcement is reshaping economic behavior and outcomes in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area. Building on our 2025 statewide analysis, this study focuses on how enforcement activity – ranging from fear and uncertainty to targeted arrests and potential mass raids – affects the region’s labor force, industries, households, and overall economic output.

Read the Report (PDF)

For questions or comments, please contact author Abby Raisz, Vice President of Research at the Bay Area Council Economic Institute at araisz@bayareacouncil.org.

OUR STUDY IN THE MEDIA

• KQED: (1) Trump’s Mass Deportations Could Cost the Bay Area $67 Billion a Year, Report Says; (2) Undocumented Families Are Stepping Back from the Tax System This Year

• SF Chronicle: Bay Area economy is deeply reliant on immigrant labor, report shows

• Mercury News: Mass deportations could jolt Bay Area economy and trigger job losses, report warns

• SF Business Times: Mass deportations would shrink Bay Area economy by $67 billion annually: report

• Northern California Public Media: (1) Sonoma County mixed‑status families face some of the steepest income losses in the Bay Area if immigration raids occur, report finds; (2) Filing on Shaky Ground: Why Immigrant Tax Filings Are Dropping across California

• ABC7: Mass deportations could cost Bay Area $67 billion a year; report shows loss of undocumented workers

• KTVU: Mass deportations could cost Bay Area economy $67B a year: report

• KALW: Report: Mass deportations could have big impact on Bay Area economy

• SFGATE: Regional: Mass Deportations Could Cost Bay Area Billions Of Dollars, Report Says

Council and SFF Host Release Event with Expert Panel