Building on the Institute’s prior analyses, this study combines county-specific economic modeling with local stakeholder input to assess Sonoma County’s workforce exposure, potential output and tax revenue losses, and household vulnerabilities. Conducted with Sonoma Community Foundation and the Sonoma County Economic Development Collaborative, it identifies how enforcement affects businesses and families and how local partners can reduce disruption and strengthen preparedness.
Sonoma County’s Immigrant Workforce
Economic Contributions and the Risks of Immigration Enforcement
Executive Summary
Federal immigration enforcement is beginning to reshape Sonoma County’s economy, exposing its reliance on a deeply rooted immigrant workforce. The county is home to approximately 79,000 immigrants, 26% of whom are undocumented, the highest undocumented share of any Bay Area county’s immigrant population. Nearly three-quarters of its undocumented residents have lived in the United States for more than a decade, and many hold jobs in which employers say experienced workers are difficult to replace. This study combines county-specific modeling and insights from two cross-sector stakeholder roundtables to assess immigrant workers’ contributions to the local economy and the economic impacts of immigration enforcement.
The potential losses are substantial. Sonoma County’s immigrant workforce supports an estimated $6.4 billion in annual output. Zeroing in on undocumented workers alone, that figure is roughly $2.3 billion, or 7% of county GDP. Immigrant residents also pay an estimated $980 million a year in federal, state, and local taxes. For Sonoma County’s more than 6,000 mixed-status households, losing the primary undocumented earner would cut median household income by 73%, leaving families with far less to spend locally and far fewer resources for rent, childcare, and healthcare.
These pressures compound a wine industry downturn, high housing costs, and an aging workforce, making enforcement’s effects hard to isolate. Compounding these pressures, legal capacity is also strained: only 46% of pending immigration court cases involving Sonoma County residents have attorney representation, the lowest of any Bay Area county. Local institutions cannot set federal policy, but they can strengthen legal and rapid-response services, help employers and households prepare, and improve access to trusted information.
Key Findings
Immigrant workers have historically contributed, and will continue to contribute, to Sonoma County’s economy, supporting an estimated $6.4 billion in annual economic activity, including $2.3 billion tied to undocumented workers. Sonoma County’s immigrant residents also contribute an estimated $980 million annually in federal, state, and local taxes. Among Sonoma County’s immigrant residents, 26.3% are undocumented, the highest share of any Bay Area county. Removing these workers from the Bay Area’s labor force could reduce public revenue that supports essential services including education, infrastructure, public safety, and health systems.
1. Sonoma County’s undocumented population is deeply rooted. Nearly three-quarters have lived in the U.S. for more than a decade, and half have been here for more than 20 years. These roots are particularly deep among undocumented residents from Mexico and Central America: over 85% have lived in the U.S. for more than a decade, compared with 17% of those from Asia.
2. Key Sonoma industries are highly exposed. Undocumented workers comprise nearly 30% of agricultural jobs, 19% of administrative support and waste management jobs, and 13% of accommodation and food service jobs. Some workers have held the same jobs for decades, accumulating knowledge that cannot be quickly replicated. One stakeholder described a grower who lost a long-tenured worker to enforcement fear: “It took two people to replace the work of the one person who left.”
3. Mixed-status families face severe economic consequences. More than 6,000 Sonoma County households could see median income fall by roughly 73%, from $96,000 to $26,300, if a primary undocumented wage earner is removed. Stakeholders described children and teenagers taking on rent and household responsibilities when adults lose work. As one community advocate recalled, “A 10-year-old asked for help finding his father a job.”
4. Sonoma County faces preparedness challenges. The county has the Bay Area’s lowest immigration-court representation rate, with only 46% of more than 5,000 pending cases having legal representation. Employers and service providers report growing needs for legal assistance and employer preparation.
For questions or comments, please contact author Abby Raisz, Vice President of Research at the Bay Area Council Economic Institute at araisz@bayareacouncil.org.