This report is a collaborative effort between the Bay Area Council Economic Institute (BACEI) and the Blue Sky Consulting Group. Data points referenced in this report regarding the cost, construction timelines, and scope of the Suisun Expansion Plan and Solano Shipyard were provided to the authors by California Forever.
Suisun Expansion Plan and Solano Shipyard
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis
Executive Summary
This report presents estimates of the economic and fiscal impacts of two large-scale development proposals in Solano County: the Suisun Expansion Plan, which includes the Solano Foundry, and the Solano Shipyard.
The Suisun Expansion Plan calls for the construction of nearly 175,000 new homes with over 105 million square feet of new commercial and industrial space, including the Solano Foundry, a 2,100-acre advanced manufacturing park.
The Solano Shipyard would be located on 7,500 acres to the east of Collinsville that are currently or formerly designated for water dependent industrial uses in Solano County’s general plans, creating one of the largest shipyard complexes in the world at full buildout.
Together, these investments in the economies of Solano County and the State of California would be unprecedented in recent history and would support hundreds of thousands of new jobs across the state. Importantly, both proposals target job creation in manufacturing – a key sector for middle-wage jobs – which would directly address stagnation in this sector. California has not produced any net new jobs in manufacturing since 2010, even as other states have attracted significant amounts of manufacturing investment and employment. Critical to unlocking these new manufacturing jobs are the new homes that are part of the Suisun Expansion Plan, which will ease home price pressure for California families and provide new housing options to Solano County residents and workers.
The economic importance of these projects for Solano County has grown more acute in the last few months following announcements that two of the county’s largest private sector employers and taxpayers – Anheuser-Busch and Valero – will close in early 2026, resulting in the loss of over 600 jobs in those two facilities. The closure of the Anheuser-Busch factory in Fairfield is estimated to result in a $10.7 million loss to local revenues. In Benicia, the closure of Valero will force the city to cut approximately $7.7 million from its $65 million general fund. If construction were to begin in 2027, investments in the Suisun Expansion Plan and the Solano Shipyard would quickly recover these fiscal losses via new job creation, sales tax gains, and property value improvements. By 2030, $82 million in incremental local government tax revenue would be generated in California.
Taken together, the Suisun Expansion Plan and the Solano Shipyard represent approximately $215 billion in direct construction investment in Solano County over a 44-year period. At full build-out, these projects will support over 530,000 jobs statewide, including tens of thousands in advanced manufacturing. On average, direct jobs created in Solano County across all sectors will earn $119,200 in total annual compensation, 20% more than existing jobs in Solano County, which earn an average annual compensation of $99,400. By co-locating nearly 175,000 homes in proximity to the Solano Foundry and Solano Shipyard, the plan addresses a primary barrier to industrial growth in California: the shortage of affordable workforce housing.
The Suisun Expansion and Solano Shipyard will also generate over $3 billion in local revenue, over $4 billion in state revenue, and over $9 billion in federal tax revenue each year following completion, providing a long-term, reliable source of funding for public services and delivering substantial fiscal benefits to Solano County and its communities. Beyond their direct impacts, the concentration of new industrial capacity, maritime manufacturing, and housing supply also positions Solano County as one of the state’s most important emerging economic engines and a central point in the future economic trajectory of the Northern California megaregion.